Recursive Progress

WE'VE MOVED

2004-04-07T22:37:00.000-05:00

Yippee! We've moved to our new home at http://blog.timothygrayson.com. Please click through and reset your bookmarks.

The Movable Type engine provides a lot of neat features like commenting and better archiving, and -- yes, you guessed it -- an RSS feed. The look and feel is generally the same, and the content is no better. All the stuff that was posted here over the year or so was also moved over to the new location's archives. So come on over.

There may be one last thing added -- an autoforwarder -- if I can figure it out.

Cheers.

Count me in

2004-04-07T07:29:00.000-05:00

Martin testing waters on Turks, Caicos.

Getting back to basics: you invest in the PEOPLE -- so pass

2004-04-07T06:35:00.000-05:00

The single greatest impediment to Air Canada's rejuvenation: its CEO. Keeping a stiff upper lip in Toronto yesterday, he said (via TheStar.com - Investors waiting in the wings):

"Air Canada president Robert Milton says while he's disappointed Hong Kong billionaire Victor Li has walked away from a deal that would save the troubled airline, he's optimistic the insolvent national carrier will find a new buyer."

I don't get it: the part about others being interested, that is.

This is why I use my Aeroplan miles as soon as I earn them

2004-04-06T07:13:00.000-05:00

This, Future of Aeroplan could be up in air, shouldn't be a surprise, what with Air Canada living on life support for the past ~~four~~ fifteen years. Call me suspicious, but having been burned once by the whole loyalty-points thing, I'll take my rewards as I earn them. Remember: stored value is only as good as the storage facility.

The signs are there: they're small though

2004-04-06T06:47:00.000-05:00

I've been participating in a strategy review with a facilitator of some skill and experience. We've been assessing the "fields of reality," which, in pedestrian language is an analysis of the business context and environment: getting a lay of the land projected forward by 5-10 years. We do that typically by looking at trends and forces at work in the industry and at large. Anyway, we were having a discussion about an impending disruption to the industry that would, in my view, come on in a cascade rather than a slow ramp. He posed an interesting question.

"How," he asked, "would you know the change was coming? In other words, what are the signs?"

Excellent line of thought. Well, in keeping with that, faithful readers may recall that this blog has more than once said that the communications world -- including the mail and courier businesses -- is changing and will change significantly once telecommunications and Internet are more than pipe-sharers. Moreover, we've blogged ENUM, and the VoIP activity going on both at Bell at AT&T in the USA. Now, the real stuff begins. Testing by Cogeco here and coverage of Vonage in the US here.

It's not Revelation, but the signs are there -- if you look.

Euthanasia for businesses on life-support

2004-04-05T07:06:00.000-05:00

Would somebody PLEEEAAASSSSE just put a bullet in ~~Robert Milton~~ Air Canada and get it over with. What's the point of months -- or years of more stories like this and this.

US jobs grow: the fiscal colon is clearing

2004-04-05T06:55:00.000-05:00

Economic incentives are an awful lot like laxatives. You want relief and you want it fast, but you don't want to take more than you need. So -- wisely -- you start small. Sometimes you get what you want when you expect it. Sometimes, though, it takes a while for the solution to work its way through all the sh**. You get impatient waiting for relief and may opt for another dose -- too soon. Well, it appears that the stimuli laid on the U.S. economy over the past several years is begining to show up in employment numbers. Maybe. Now we'll just wait and see if it was enough to clear it all or if the US economy's going to be running to the toilet a little too much. SeeTheStar.com - Higher U.S. job numbers rally markets

Lotto winner has $30-million in new friends and old

2004-04-05T06:38:00.000-05:00

You knew there had to be a reason for the wait, besides circumspection. Now, according to this it might be a couple ex's and some children. First snip:

Raymond Sobeski kept his $30 million secret for almost a year until he appeared at a Lotto Super 7 news conference last Thursday to claim Canada's largest single lottery jackpot. He also said he was single.
Since then, reporters have been banging on the door of the family farm in the rural community of Harley and taking pictures of the house. Locals are stopped on the street and asked what they think, and false stories have appeared saying he's behind on child support for his two children, 12 and 13, Sobeski said.

And more . . .

Ionson met Sobeski Dec. 10, 1994, and they eloped exactly four years later, she said. She said she is finding it hard to reconcile her feelings with Sobeski's decision to sit on a lottery ticket while she was struggling.

"I believe he loves me, but I'm confused why he'd let me suffer for an entire year," she said. "I can't believe he did it. It's been the worst year of my life."

She said Sobeski gave her separation papers more than a year ago and she received, but didn't sign, divorce papers in January.

She also said their relationship has continued.

Of course, a story's just a story. But, with a $30-million budget this daytime drama's sure to make a spash.

World resists one-size-fits-all Web laws

2004-04-05T06:32:00.000-05:00

And this, from Michael Geist, is why a really good investment would be to send an experienced and capable e-business product innovator to law school for even more knowledge. Otherwise the poor industrial-era business is left at the mercy of an equally "yesterday" legal counsel but further delayed because of the consulting period.

More on von Finckenstein's ruling: file-sharers remain anonymous

2004-04-02T07:58:00.000-05:00

David Akin pushes the consequences of the ruling further, noting that some people (and you know who you are ;-) ) have been downloading television programming and movies with P2P file-sharing just like KaZaa opens the world to music file sharing. His column here.

Also in the Globe and Mail, George Emerson provides an essay on how von Finckenstein's rule is a little bit of push back not as dramatic but equally as valid as the Magna Carta and the Declaration of Independence in their effect of rebelling against the overlording of the power elite. (My apologies for the inconsistency in the parallel -- of course, the judge represents the established rules and not those seeking to overturn establishment. Whatever, it sounds more dramatic this way and I think you get my point.)

What excellent restraint: winnings awaited the winner

2004-04-02T07:42:00.000-05:00

A Brampton man waited nearly one year to claim his $30-million Super-7 cheque (plastered in every media outlet, but noted here). Apparently it cost him about $700,000 in lost investment return to get his ducks in a row: and he doesn't care. He's going to keep farming near Brampton, but intends to quit the computer repair business. You go, man!

His story reminds me of a joke going around when I was a kid about the farmer who won the million-dollar lottery (yeah, that was big then). When asked what he was going to do with his new found wealth, he replied, "I think I'll keep farming until it's all gone."

Finding the G-spot

2004-04-01T08:11:00.000-05:00

I'm in LOVE with Google. At least I think so, although it could be a short-lived intense infatuation that ultimately leads down the road to boredom and heartbreak . . .

Here's why, as covered by the NYTimes in a story called Google to Roll Out E-Mail Service. Frankly, it seems as though everyone is offering e-mail services these days. So what. More to be loved is how they're doing all this. Yahoo!: yeah, whatever, that is soooo 1990s; Microsoft: what?? those bastards are just using their monopoly power to control even more of the Internet. Sun . . . Oracle . . . and so on. But with Google, It's "oh goodie. It's so cute. Those two boys are sooo smart . . ." And it's cheeky in a post-modern kind of way. A snip:

The new service, to be named Gmail ["I'm picking up my mail from the G-spot (a.k.a. Google). . ."], is scheduled to be released on Thursday, according to people involved with the plan. It will be 'soft launched,' they said, in a manner that Google has followed with other features that it has added to its Web site, with little fanfare and presented initially as a long-running test.

The last part is the best: "presented as a long-running test." Wow! Does that ever make life simple. Products in and dominating their markets without ever being officially launched -- with attendant expectations. Gonna have to try that with my next initiative.

Biometrics hit the right metrics -- money

2004-04-01T08:03:00.000-05:00

Here in the NYTimes is a small story about a "BioPod" from American Power Corporation. Just another in the mounting pile of stories about digital identity tools and capabilities that are getting ready for prime time in the most capitalist of ways: hitting the price point for the mass market. The Times's lead:

Fingerprint scanners are nothing new, but high prices have made them a tough sell for many technology buffs. A new scanner that costs $50 may persuade consumers to give biometric technology another look.

More bad news for those record companies

2004-04-01T07:50:00.000-05:00

From the Globe and Mail:

The Federal Court of Canada ruled Wednesday that Internet Service Providers can't be forced to turn over identities of suspected music swappers, throwing a roadblock in the path of the recording industry's efforts to crack down on the practice.

Some are heralding it as a victory for file-sharers; others bemoaning it as a defeat of the copyright laws. I'm not sure it's either of those: the decision was on whether ISPs could be forced to turn over the names of people identified by a third party (not the police) in a civil action. It is the ISPs "victory" over a battle for the protection of their turf (read: they have control over the identity of their customers/subscribers). In that respect it is really a (perverted) victory for privacy.

The decision reads, in part:

"The mere fact of placing a copy on a shared directory in a computer where that copy can be accessed via a P2P service does not amount to distribution," Judge von Finckenstein said.

"Before it constitutes distribution, there must be a positive act by the owner of the shared directory, such as sending out the copies or advertising that they are available for copying."

Tie this to the information from the post below and you have an industry that is fighting a losing battle and really, in the spirit and wisdom of the greater Oriental martial arts, ought to align itself with and use the forces blowing around it to its advantage rather than fighting against them.

Record companies still "spinning" their (wrong) old song

2004-04-01T07:41:00.000-05:00

This just (well, recently -- I've seen it a few times) in from CNET news via the Globe and Mail: File-sharing doesn't kill CD sales, study finds. The story kind of puts a dent in the recording industry's whine about the evils of file sharing on their business. In short:

A study of file-sharing's effects on music sales says on-line music trading appears to have had little part in the recent slide in CD sales.

For the study, released Monday, researchers at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina tracked music downloads over 17 weeks in 2002, matching data on file transfers with actual market performance of the songs and albums being downloaded. Even high levels of file-swapping seemed to translate into an effect on album sales that was 'statistically indistinguishable from zero,' they wrote.

Still, the tobacco industry didn't worry much about the studies that countered their story either.

Possible impact on the burning platform under DRM (for music and movies)? Maybe.

Canadian wireless is going to change

2004-03-31T08:01:00.000-05:00

Virgin [unused?] wireless will -- finally, come December -- be a reality in Canada according to this story. A snip:

Flamboyant entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson is bringing his Virgin Mobile wireless brand to Canada later this year, hoping to shake up the market by aggressively going after people younger than 25 in a partnership with Bell Mobility Inc.

Gee, under 25 -- isn't that the heart of the future for wireless: SMS, MMS, m-commerce, . . . ?

Must be. Here's Bell Mobility's perspective:

For Bell, the Virgin deal was the best way to go after customers younger than 25, said Michael Neuman, Bell Mobility president. Although Bell has a brand called Solo aimed at the same people, Mr. Neuman said Bell was "particularly excited" about the prospects for the Virgin name in Canada.

Good-bye Solo!
Another snip:

The average consumer really doesn't understand how much they're paying for their phone and they resent that," said Will Whitehorn, a Virgin Group director. "They have to work out buckets of minutes and what time of day they can use it. We will break that mould."
Current pay-as-you-go plans have many variations and often carry restrictions, such as much more expensive calling during the day. Virgin Mobile Canada's service will be similar to what it offers in the United States, where the first 10 minutes of use each day cost 25 cents and all minutes thereafter, daytime and evening, are 10 cents.

Billing and service clarity? How novel.

So, what with Fido being propped up by Craig McCaw, et al's $50,000,000-plus, it looks like the times they are a changin'.

I've pondered it before: should businesses have a limited life span anyway

2004-03-31T07:55:00.000-05:00

The reader who looks at these posts regularly knows that I have more than once though the idea that since "the firm" is recognized as a "person" (corporate body) by the law, it should have a natural life that ends naturally just like a real person. It's a bit of strange, philosophical noodling, admittedly. But, here is an example in Air Canada, Red ink set to flow as Air Canada prepares to unveil 2003 results, that shows it is in critical care -- perennially on life support like an old and battered mugging victim ["Victim?" Wouldn't you say more like a psychopath with self-destructive tendencies? ed.] -- and should be euthenized rather than allowed to sap away the family's wealth day by costly day.

So, when exactly does the doctor or the health care trustee with power of attorney finally pull the plug?

Let's face it: there are alternatives for both domestic and international air travel in Canada. Air Canada once had a valuable purpose for the national economy and social development; that is passed. It is a remnant of another time carrying a flag and little else.

RED ALERT: UPS outlets to go Wi-Fi (I know what's next)

2004-03-30T16:17:00.000-05:00

Apparently a Dow Jones story, that I found on the Quicken (!?) news site, purports that SBC Communications will be setting up a Wi-Fi service out of UPS and Mail Boxes Etc. shops throughout the USA. A snip:

NEW YORK -- SBC Communications Inc. is expected to announce it will offer Wi-Fi, or wireless access to the Internet, at more than 3,000 United Parcel Service Inc. retail stores around the country, people familiar with the situation told The Wall Street Journal.

The move would be one of the largest rollouts of the technology yet and would allow users to access the Internet at up to 100 times dial-up speed at UPS retail outlets such as UPS Store and Mail Boxes Etc. . . . SBC and UPS aim to offer Wi-Fi at UPS retail stores because those locations are often used as de facto offices by businesspeople and consumers. Instead of merely sending mail or making copies, they will soon also be able to access the Internet on their own laptops at such stores.

Next step is making UPS the business (SOHO?) customer's electronic carrier of choice for hybrid electronic-physical (i.e., send Internet, print at Mailboxes and deliver), parcel delivery (for Internet orders) possibly even with a COD capability, and many other little strategic tid-bits that expand its position in the overall communications market.

Postal administrations: be worried. Be very worried.

Clayton Christensen was in town (and nobody invited me)

2004-03-30T07:55:00.000-05:00

I've been sold on the validity and intelligence of Clayton Christensen's thesis in The Innovator's Dilemma (and Innovator's Solution). It resonates with me, to say the least. So, I've been wanting to meet with him and (Solution's co-author Michael Raynor) since the beginning of the year. So, when he's in Ottawa and I didn't know (so I couldn't even wangle an invite somehow -- where are you loyal readers anyway??), I get edgy.

Anyway, he apparently wowed them at Industry Canada and Bell Canada, where he spoke. Here, in the Globe and Mail article that covered it, are a few words that give me hope for the atypical skill set and field of vision that I possess and jealously refuse to change [to the typical, "accepted" form of inverted monitoring that goes on within industries]:

Prof. Christensen, who also worked as an assistant to two U.S. transportation secretaries during the Reagan years, also said too many companies view their competitors as the other key players in their sectors, instead of other products that compete to do the same job for the customer.

Research In Motion Ltd.'s BlackBerry, for example, may compete more for the business traveller's spare time with newspapers, magazines, and CNN's airport news than with other handheld device makers such as Palm Inc. Poor market research contributes heavily to the fact that about 75 per cent of new products fail, he said.

Amen.

Wireless broadband from sea to shining sea

2004-03-29T08:08:00.000-05:00

The Toronto Star has an interesting column in its technology section today that ties up a number of threads including wireless Internet, broadband access and the federal government to spread it to every corner of Canada, competition in the wireless market from the little guy (Fido a.k.a. Microcell), and Canadian connections to Craig McCaw. It's here, titled Boost for high-speed wireless Web.

Read the article if you have anything to do with wireless, Internet, telecommunications, or the way of high-tech driven communications in general. It's quite fascinating. Without going into the detail, here's a snip for flavour:

Microcell plans to sell the fixed-wireless modem — from Minneapolis-based NextNet Wireless Inc. — for about $325 and the service will go for $40 a month, which is $5 to $10 cheaper than rival DSL and cable services.
In Cumberland and Richmond, people signing up today only have to pay $20 for the first six months, and need only pay $125 for the modem.

The modem is the size of a paperback novel and sits upright on a desk. After plugging it into your computer, it instantly finds the closest radio tower in your neighbourhood and makes a high-speed connection — this bridges the so-called 'last mile.'

The service is portable, meaning if you take it to a friend's house or a hotel and plug it in, it will detect the nearest tower and automatically sign you in under your account. The modem only delivers high-speed Internet access today, but before the end of the year it will also act as a Wi-Fi home wireless network and will be capable of offering telephone service using voice over IP technology.

Well worth finding out more, I think.

Wal-Mart delays RFID program

2004-03-29T07:51:00.000-05:00

Not entirely surprising that the aggressive demand from Wal-Mart that all its suppliers conform to its requirement for RFID tags on merchandise it retails (to become effective within days from now) has been delayed. As the NYTimes reports in Wal-Mart Hits Snags in Push to Use Radio Tags to Track Goods, they're going to be late.

That's not entirely bad because the flurry of activity Wal-Mart spurred has moved the technology much closer toward commercial viability, faster. Still, apart from execution, there are a couple not insignificant problems:

One hurdle bogging down Wal-Mart and its suppliers is the cost of the devices. The tags alone cost 25 cents to 30 cents each. Analysts contend that for many users the price needs to fall to 5 cents or less before the investments can be recovered from the savings generated by moving goods more rapidly and accurately through supply chains.

In the drug industry and others where counterfeiting and tampering are major concerns, the tags may pay off sooner.

Then, of course, there's this shocker:

It is also becoming apparent that industrywide standards for advanced tags and readers are developing more slowly than the technology's advocates had hoped. That adds to the incentives for delaying investment.

How sad: Author Peter Ustinov Dies at 82

2004-03-29T07:44:00.000-05:00

Actor, author, and raconteur extraordinaire Peter Ustinov died at 82. In addition to enjoying many of the roles he brought to life acting (in person or by lending his voice) and the wit of his writing, I once saw Sir Peter Ustinov hold court in a concert hall -- alone -- for 2 1/2 hours without reducing himself to coarseness of any kind. My cheeks hurt from laughing so hard and so long.

Were there more of his kind.

How come my piece looks so small?

2004-03-26T07:46:00.000-05:00

According to this CP tidbit, the average net worth of Canada (for each "shareholding" Canadian) was $124,700 at the end of last year. I had set my sell order at $125,000, so I'm looking to liquidate my holdings and invest in a tiger-economy this year. Or maybe I'll get a few guys together, sell our portion and buy The Turks and Caicos.

Micro-google?

2004-03-26T07:43:00.000-05:00

Worst kept secret of the year so far: Microsoft comes late to the party and plans to compete against a very successful company that's captured a market niche which has proved much larger than anyone -- especially execs at Microsoft -- expected. Note that they seem to only want to compete now that they couldn't just buy the market (read: the competitor). Is this the Quicken story? How about the Internet (browser) story? Good guesses, but too old. Add google to the list. As this item points out, Steve Ballmer is only reticent about not getting into this space earlier.

Of course. I'm a little upset about not having invented the automobile . . . and I wasn't in the business nor did I have the BILLIONS of dollars to pioneer such a course. You go, Steve -- the path is cleared. By the way, if you were hiring . . . oh, really . . . that's too bad, maybe later though . . .

Apple delays iPod mini

2004-03-26T07:31:00.000-05:00

Great . . . Apple underestimated U.S. demand for the puny iPod and have delaying roll-out for 3-months according to this. No one-inch 4-gig drives left in the world -- in case you were looking for one.

At this rate they'll be releasing the "iPod micro" before I come close to seeing an iPod mini -- in lime green or otherwise. Mental note: move to Christmas 2005 list.

Trouble with this market is that they're relatively short-term

2004-03-26T07:22:00.000-05:00

The NYTimes carried a technology item yesterday entitled, The Net’s Late Bloomers. It's about the growth of Net usage among seriously senior citizens. To quote:

According to a new study by the Pew Internet and American Life Project, a research organization in Washington, the ranks of Americans over 65 who use the Internet have jumped by 47 percent since 2000, making them the fastest-growing group to embrace the online world.

Despite the increases, this age group still has a long way to go. Only 22 percent of Americans over 65 go online, the study shows, compared with 75 percent of those ages 30 to 49. But as Americans who are more comfortable with computers gradually reach the age of 65, the percentage going online (or more precisely, staying online) should soar.

There goes my ROI from the bingo hall investment.

Phishers' malignant spam a big problem

2004-03-25T07:42:00.000-05:00

The venerable NYTimes ran a piece the other day about "phishers." These are online fraud artists obviously fishing for suckers. [When I was a kid sucker was caught with a net because they wouldn't take a hook. ed.]The story is a pretty good look at the real dark side of spam: where a glimpse of booty or solicitation for erectile support is tame. This is a part of the Internet where amateurs and pros alike pick em off like shooting em a barrel, as it were.

The article has an early statement:

At this point, there are few sure ways for an Internet user to tell if an e-mail message is legitimate. So experts advise people to be extremely wary of providing any confidential information in response to e-mail.
'The crooks are getting slicker, and the bogus Web sites and e-mails are dangerously legitimate looking,' Mr. Wray said."

So, the institutionalization of a legitimate Internet-based transport system that would provide more control and certainty might be a good thing for business, government, and consumers/citizens.

Think about it. I've got an idea.

Wal-Mart v. iTunes and Napster

2004-03-24T08:31:00.000-05:00

The digital model evolves to the traditional retailer. See here. The new channel and its obnoxious (to the record industry) business model are ready to eclipse the old world.

Not with the hoo-ha and awe of the latter day Nostradami making predictions in the height of the late-90s bubble, but quietly and solidly with the journeyman economic weight of capability that only middle-American retailing might can heft.

Over the past several years, rather than listening to those experienced failures that retreated back to the industrial-era businesses with the sage advice to forget it all -- it was foolish -- we might have been well advised to repeat the film noir mantra: It's quiet . . . too quiet . . .

Talent as a competitive weapon

2004-03-24T07:43:00.000-05:00

I've read that Microsoft hires for brains and Oracle for aggression. What does your business hire for? An item in teh Globe and Mail:

"While there may have been a time when the emphasis was so firmly on 'corporate fit' that companies like IBM would choose the least objectionable (and in some cases least interesting) candidate, now, he says, 'it's quite healthy -- people are recognizing talent more than they ever did and companies are going out of their way to find and keep outstanding talent.'
But Prof. Gandz, who is not only the managing director of Ivey's executive development program, but has also worked in leadership development for General Electric . . . [said] two things are true of top talent . . . Top talent requires a different method of care and feeding, and top talent can be, well, a pain in the ass. 'Some of them are not nice people.' Or, as the professor said, apologizing in advance for his language, 'it's hard to tell the difference between a rising star and a flaming asshole.'"

Read the article if you think you have, manage, or are a high talent employee.

Stress a bigger problem today: we're a society of whiners

2004-03-23T08:54:00.000-05:00

The Global Business and Economic Roundtable on Addiction and Mental Health released a report saying that we're more stressed and vulnerable than five years ago, and that it's a problem to be addressed, according to this. You're as "stressed" as you let yourself be, and at least you don't have to fight off wild animals, hunt for your food everyday, live in utter ignorance of the world around you, . . .

Get over it.

Just a thought.

The long arm of the law just isn't strong enough to stop spam

2004-03-19T10:57:00.000-05:00

We've said it before (and we'll say it again). Legislation isn't going to stop spam. Not that I would ever be confused with an NRA zealot, but their logic against gun regulation that runs something like, "When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns," is being proven out in this arena. This article, entitled Junk E-Mail Is Unabated Despite Law, Survey Says, in the NYTimes, notes:

THREE months after Congress approved legislation intended to curb spam, unsolicited e-mail is a persistent, if not worsening, problem, according to a survey released yesterday by the Pew Internet and American Life Project. Roughly 75 percent of the Internet users surveyed reported no change or an increase in the amount of junk e-mail they receive, and nearly one-third of them said they were using e-mail less because of it.
"Things aren't getting better," said Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Internet project. "And for many Internet users, they're getting worse."

Download the Pew survey.

The legislation seems to be having an impact on porn spam. But, the survey is taken in early days -- before work-arounds have been figured out. Rainie, from Pew, continues with a theme we've taken up before: "The technology community has its job to do, the legal and legislative communities have their jobs to do, and people have their own jobs to do," he said. "It would help if some people were smarter about what they open, or don't open, in their in-boxes."

Amen.

ISPs think about beefing up monitoring of broadband accounts to

2004-03-19T10:49:00.000-05:00

According to this CNET item, the major broadband ISP providers in the US are contemplating putting greater monitoring and security into place to thwart spam and virus propagation. That is, they would monitor individual accounts for unusual activity so that "granny" is unwittingly sending spam or viruses because her computer's been infected and is a drone.

Good move. Too little; too late. And, it seems to me that there is a digital identity (partial) solution someplace in here to complement some user education about cautious Web use.

Liquidation of Air Canada a great final chapter in Milton's book, no?

2004-03-19T08:36:00.000-05:00

This past weekend we found out that Robert Milton, Chief ExtraOrdinaire at Air Canada, had a book contract to tell his side of his wunder-story. How he beat Canadian, then beat Onyx for Canadian, then did a host of other stupid things to run the national flag-carrier into the ground pissing off unions, investors, regulators, and the flying public at the same time. Ought to make for sympathetic reading, don't you think. Whatever, he's got his advance.

Let's hope that the manuscript isn't done and into the galleys already because this little story in the Toronto Star would make a fabulous epilogue. To quote:

The spectre of liquidation raised its head yesterday as Air Canada faced the possibility of losing Hong Kong businessman Victor Li as its major shareholder over a dispute with the airline's unions.
Li's Trinity Time Investments, which beat out New York investment firm Cerberus Capital Management to become the airline's proposed main investor, threatened Wednesday to 'walk away' and abort its planned $650 million investment in the airline unless the unions agree to changes in pensions. . . . . 'I think that would put Air Canada in very considerable jeopardy of actually being liquidated,'" [said Karl Moore, professor of business strategy at McGill University].

You go, Bob.

Online bill payment to save AOL? Doubters Jack.

2004-03-19T08:14:00.000-05:00

According to this piece, The Check's No Longer In the Mail, in the Washington Post, AOL's in the online bill payment business (with partner Yodlee doing the work). Not sure whether they'll be successful. From a Canadian perspective, I think it probably won't work because the banks have the "payment" side sewn up -- quite naturally.

The real work and real impact is to be had on the other side of eBPP: the presentment portion. Gotta go find out what Yodelee is up to there.

But what if I'm not online looking for the movie clip?

2004-03-19T08:02:00.000-05:00

This CNET piece entitled, Movie clips out to tantalize Web surfers shows an interesting melding of marketing (promotion) and [obvious] technology access. To quote:

Even while protesting Net piracy, movie studios are warming to the Web for promotional purposes, broadcasting longer previews of new films.
This week, Warner Bros. is showing the first 9 minutes and 8 seconds of its upcoming thriller 'Taking Lives' on Yahoo Movies, in an effort to boost awareness and ticket sales.

Now just imagine what might happen if I could ask for the download when I saw the trailer at a theatre or on a movie poster or in a television ad . . .

We said telecomm would consolidate

2004-03-19T07:44:00.000-05:00

We just didn't say it might create a displacement of the status quo at the top of the heap. WTF? Manitoba Telecomm (!!) is buying AllStream (the former AT&T Canada) according to this and this story.

Winnipeg is on the rise again ;)

A Memory Card for Photos Is One for the Scrapbook

2004-03-19T07:36:00.000-05:00

Where was Kodak when SanDisk was eating its lunch? As shown in this NYTimes item, SanDisk, makers of various solid-state memory cards used in digital cameras, has recreated film. A small-memory, cheap (relatively), essentially disposable disk that could be reused but is as good in a "use and store" scenario. Photographers have to continually but more "digital film."

Bravo!

Earthquake near Ottawa

2004-03-18T08:04:00.000-05:00

They don't call this Silicon Valley North [Do "they?" ed.] for nothing. Short item here.

Locking the door after the identity horses are out -- and stolen

2004-03-17T09:23:00.000-05:00

OK. I understand the notion of wanting to release more information about who/what was stolen from Equifax in B.C. so that we can take greater care to determine whether we're personally affected and be vigilant about what happens to our identities if we have been affected. That's what this Globe and Mail story refers to. BUT, more detail in the public domain may not be the best long-term strategy for Equifax (for sure), for those affected, and for keeping other criminals at least a little bit in the dark about the internal machinations of such data repositories.

Besides, it's clean up time now. Taking precautions in a general, public way should have happened after the last major theft from IBM's outsource site in Saskatchewan last year.

The economic shit's gonna hit the fan now

2004-03-17T08:18:00.000-05:00

Here's an NYTimes item from yesterday that should give us all a little pause: Greenspan Shifts View on Deficits
First, Alan probably has been prudently making sure he personally is not drowning in debt to fuel a consumerist lifestyle (look at how he dresses!). Second, the banker has been the leading advocate for debt reduction and non-deficit budgeting. But now, according to the article,

Mr. Greenspan's thesis, which is not accepted by all traditional economists, is that increases in personal wealth and the growing sophistication of financial markets have allowed Americans — individually and as a nation — to borrow much more today than might have seemed manageable 20 years ago.

This sounds to me -- not an economist, granted -- like the same kind of logic that drove the Keynesian deficit building of the last half of the 20th century. "It couldn't happen to us. We're too smart."

Jobs being added -- at least in this story

2004-03-17T08:12:00.000-05:00

This item in the Toronto Star (among many running the same piece) says that jobs are going to be added by employers in Canada this spring. Good news. Doesn't say exactly what kind of jobs, but whatever.

The item confuses me because just this weekend I read in another newspaper that consumer confidence is down, job growth is stalled (off, actually, for the month being reported -- probably January), and our exports are being killed due to a strong dollar. [Only in Canada do we complain and rave about the value of our currency. ed.] Who to believe? And for how long?

Moaning about spam on the burning platform

2004-03-17T08:07:00.000-05:00

The Globe and Mail reports: The inbox of the average Canadian surfing the Internet will be overwhelmed with about 7,000 unwanted e-mail messages this year, about 60 per cent more spam than received last year, a study reports. The rest of the article dissects the spam intake by source and value, then notes activity in the industry. First, the actions of email providers Yahoo!, Earthlink, Microsoft, and AOL to sue spammers and stop it with both technological and business means. Second, it notes that there is movement at the federal level to unveil anti-spam legislation.

This whole subject area is hot, hot, hot. Why? Full marks for looking at who suffers and benefits from activity here (hint: look past the consumer/user).

Covering the Internet based when they're loaded

2004-03-17T07:44:00.000-05:00

Here's an instructive bit of information about the state of the Internet in Canada courtesy of the Globe and Mail. Apparently Rogers and Bell are squaring off for a fight [This is news? Did anybody tell Telus? ed.] in the Internet world. They have big U.S. partners: Yahoo! with Rogers and Microsoft (MSN) with Bell. Here's the run-down:

Yahoo! will offer "uniquely Canadian" content to Roger's subscribers;
MSN and Bell will merge their Canadian and Sympatico portals into a single high-power site
Sympatico Music Store will be part of the merged site;
Roger's remains focused on speed first with content as a good add-on (because cable is faster);
Bell is focused on content and services (because it's high-speed offering is slower);
both companies forget that it's a big Internet world out there, and all but the uninitiated and craven stick to the portals that are defaulted into the browser provided by the service provider.

Identity theft at the credit bureau

2004-03-17T07:27:00.000-05:00

Equifax suffered a theft of the data on 1,400 people according to an item in the Globe and Mail. Bad news. Little snip:

Vancouver — Criminals have gained access to the detailed, personal credit files of about 1,400 people, in a security breach that raises fears of a major identity theft.The security breach was confirmed Monday by Equifax Canada Inc., a major national consumer-credit reporting agency.

Not surprising though given that a credit bureau is like the motherlode of identity ore to be mined for fun and profit. Shouldn't there be better safeguards on the encryption and protection of the actual information so that it's rendered useless except to those posessing the essential knowledge to make sense of it? AND, why weren't the apparently "legitimate credit grantor" criminals unmasked for what they were through some better authentication protocol?

They must be dancin in the streets (to their iTunes)

2004-03-17T07:18:00.000-05:00

It could be called "The Revenge of Commerce." Apple's ipod-driven iTunes music site is pumping bits for a buck to music lovers in the US. According to an AP item in The Washington Post:

SAN JOSE, Calif. - Apple Computer Inc. said Monday it has sold more than 50 million songs through its online iTunes Music Store.

Who'd have imagined at the time that the original peer-to-peer pirate ship, Napster, would beget KAZAA, would beget iTunes, would force the music industry to change?

Computer pesticides work -- for now

2004-03-15T20:40:00.000-05:00

According to this story in the Globe and Mail, the "Net virus spread may have peaked." Notwithstanding the fact that somebody -- Symantec, apparently, having commissioned a study of 20,000 sources -- is projecting rate of acceleration and velocity into an unknown (and unknowable) future state, this is mass media talking about something it doesn't understand at its finest. At least Symantec acknowledges that despite lower velocity and acceleration, the severity of computer attacks is getting worse. Something we can all observe.

Dubious distinction award to the Great White North:Canada . . . [reports] the highest number of computer attacks for each Internet user, partly because of the country's high rate of broadband Internet penetration via cable and DSL access providers. About 8 per cent of computer attacks originate in Canada. The United States holds down the No. 1 position, accounting for about 58 per cent of all attacks.

Not opaque enough for comfort

2004-03-15T14:51:00.000-05:00

TIA (Total Information Awareness) was a "Big Brother" security initiative created around 9/11 that has been killed because the pushback was too strong. Another state-level initiative built on a Seisint technology, called Matrix, has, according to this NYTimes item, "Privacy Fears Erode Support for a Network to Fight Crime," taken a hit as more than a few of the participating states are backing out. It appears to come down to a privacy imposition issues. Read for more details.

What it points out in bold relief, however, is that privacy is truly about opacity not secrecy. The supporters of the initiaitve have gone to great pains to defend the initiative and their work by noting that all the information is available legally somewhere. They only collect and analyse it. And that's the point. Not much about us is really secret. But, by hiding or keeping distance among "private" (and other) information items selectively, and by bundling bits together judiciously, we achieve a comfortable degree of opacity about ourselves that stands in for real secrecy.

Funny what 228 years can do

2004-03-15T08:08:00.000-05:00

This and this (NB: both Canadian perspective) refer to a recent poll that concludes Canadians see Americans as their best buddy in the world. Trouble is that the buddy loves another better: Americans best friend is Britain [Hence the post title, for those of you confused. ed.].

Rumination by experts quoted in the articles points to the Americans: (a) just not seeing Canada as a separate nation [Remember: This is a poll of "average" Americans who are, for all else, just a little unaware of the world beyond their borders. ed.]; (b) unaware that there is a "Canada" at all, but aware that there's an England because they have funny accents; or (c) being pissed off with Canada because even though we talk a good "soft power" game, when the chips are down and a superpower needs to impose a little gunboat diplomacy on an oil-soaked desert, Canada just isn't there.

Tea anyone?

Who cares (about spam)?

2004-03-15T07:52:00.000-05:00

I've been wondering for a while -- loudly, I think -- about spam and the recent attention it's been getting from major industry players such as Microsoft, Yahoo!, and AOL. If only to provoke some answers, I've taken to asking, "who really cares?" Well, apart from the moms and dads protecting their kids' email boxes from (near) pornography solicitations and scam artists, here's the answer: the industry itself. This comment piece in the Globe and Mail makes it clear. The productivity imposition is the focus and the problem.

OK. With that in the clear, let's focus on the issue and solve it. I wonder though, if these industry players, and downstream providers of bandwidth, servers, security, and all the other derivative and derived products and services have given any thought to what happens to the need for more hardware, software, and pipe if "spam is solved"?

Only in LA-LA-Land

2004-03-14T09:50:00.000-05:00

Finally got the film from the California trip processed, and scanned some of the favorite shots. Here's one especially for the blog. From Hollywood, near the Kodak theatre on Oscar night, I bring you the very best in broadcast advertising.

Gotta love it.

Wireless has overcoo-uh-uh-uummmm

2004-03-12T08:16:00.000-05:00

Little item from the Telecommunications Industry Association in Mobile Pipeline notes, "In its annual review and forecast, the TIA said that, for the first time, consumers and enterprises spent more money on wireless service than on wireline long distance in 2003." The rest of the short item spells out the growth rates and volumes spent, inducting that price structure change is likely on the way.

Yup.

Maybe they've got a thing about "11"

2004-03-12T08:08:00.000-05:00

As the recursive wife observed this morning while we were discussing the devastation in Madrid (covered everywhere, but I noted it here, here, and here -- for different N.A'n perspectives), and focus turns to Al-Qaeda -- or Basque separatists, or others [way to narrow the field there, intell community ed.]:

New York was September 11th; Madrid was March 11th. Maybe they've got a thing for the 11th.

She's got a point.

So, I wonder whether anyone has checked any historic, anthropological, cultural, linguistic, etc. significance to "11". I also wonder, if this little notionette were to gain any kind of broad support, whether the world will hole itself up behind locked doors from the evening of the 10th to dawn of the 12th? The pattern suggests June or December for the next one IF it's in fact Al-Qaeda.

Just a thought.

No blogging -- visiting the Mouse

2004-02-27T11:18:00.000-05:00

No blogging until March 2nd or 3rd because me and the kid are visiting Mickey with "the Godfather" in sunny CA. On other Disney news, as we've been saying for a while, I hope Eisner's put a little something away over the years. He be gone soon.

More Microsoft -- the spam killer

2004-02-25T13:36:00.000-05:00

Lots of news about/from Microsoft coming out of the Moscone Center in San Francisco (RSA) today. In addition to the post below, here's another piece from the Washington Post entitled, Microsoft to Launch Plan to Control Spam. Upshot: MS is launching a means to detect spam by validating the sender. In other words, rather than deal with spam as something to be filtered out for its content or unknown qualities, they propose to "filter" the spam based on validation of the sender's authenticity. In other words, if I don't know who you are, your mail doesn't get through. And, it proposes this based on a voluntary (??) registration of the sending IP addresses; corollary: without extensive PKI or similar technology. Hotmail is going to launch this very soon.

Verrrrry interrresting. The obvious loser is the "spoofer" trying to get around filters by pretending to be a known quantity -- at least until there's a new way around the solution. I could see this eventually migrating to a credential-based system that requires authentication of the actual sender with some form of digital id token (see MS/RSA announcement immediately below). But, this seems like a relatively painless way for the market to adopt the process.

Time will tell.

Microsoft's secure computing in action

2004-02-25T11:55:00.000-05:00

This joint announcement by Microsoft and RSA was not entirely unexpected. The dance partners are the interesting part. But, being modestly aware of Microsoft's business position in general, I would say that this is not necessarily an endorsement of a solution as much as it is the earliest alternative out of the gate for Microsoft.

Regardless, it'll probably do good things for RSA, for Microsoft, and for the digital identity space -- inasmuch as it's a concrete step forward, by someone, that can be accepted, rejected, upgraded, or replaced. It's motion anyways.

Spinning like a top

2004-02-25T08:46:00.000-05:00

Here's the problem with believing your own press: Stronach says she can lead Canada to prosperity. The recipe in a nutshell: Take one 37-year old neophyte who never finished post-secondary education, married well (once or twice), and then had daddy put her into the parade marshall's car at the front of a self-running machine to wave and smile. Leave her there for a while to chair meetings and spend time with others who "lead" [What an incredibly abused word ed.] large parades, give her words to read to shareholders and other audiences -- crafted by those with facility with words -- and, finally, have an old politcal warhorse with an agenda convince her that she was responsible for all these good things. Eventually the unwarranted hubris takes on a life of its own.

Consider what she says (as dutifully reported by the modestly left-leaning Toronto Star):

"Bottom line, I understand the economy," Stronach said today in a speech prepared for the joint Canadian and Empire Clubs of Canada. "I understand what it takes to create jobs, to spend money wisely and to invest in the future." [snip] The 37-year-old daughter of auto-parts magnate Frank Stronach said the skills developed as president and CEO of Magna International, her father's firm, provide the experience she will need to take hold of Canada's finances.

Followed by this whopping mound of whipped cream -- sweet, light, and happy but not very filling:

"We are going to compete by creating world-class value-added products and services made and supplied by highly skilled Canadian workers," she said.

Col. Potter, who was the second commander at MASH 4077 might have said, "Horse Hockey!"

I wonder if anyone's asked this question

2004-02-25T08:32:00.000-05:00

Everywhere you turn there's more media attention, and commercial/governmental activity engaging smart cards and, more especially biometrics, into digital identity. It's all for our safety, you know. ;-). For instance: here (Canadian airports to use biometrics) (find more on you're own -- it's not that hard to do). Anyway, back to the point.

What about people with prosthetic limbs, new or old; or others with malformed or no fingers? I realize it's a small part of the population, but still: How's it to be dealt with?

The signs are there . . .

2004-02-25T07:23:00.000-05:00

Reading the entrails, as so many appear to have time for -- or get paid for, which is better, it's starting to look a lot like the cycle reached its low-end inflection point a little while ago and things are heating up. This is particularly so in the technology area where the new canary is still singing -- not loudly -- but singing nonetheless, as this Toronto Star [Daddy's got a brand new left-offrom-the-centre-of-the-universe source. ed.] piece about Ciena's acquisition of Catena Networks, in Ottawa, shows. Also of note, the NYTimes has a story and popup about the rapidly increasing value of M&A these days. And, that's just today.

Meanwhile, on other pages of the same papers are stories about a poor job outlook dimming the U.S. economy -- and more of the same.

Which only goes to show that it's not the entrails, it's who's looking at them.

New essay

2004-02-24T20:51:00.000-05:00

For those who care, I've got a new essay, Digital Identity Religion and Information Dogma, on my Website's Identity page. The religions of identity are solidifying among those who follow the "Big Brother" approach, others who prefer "federation," and yet others who want to have their own solutions damn the rest. All of these choices rest on a confused state of understanding about the (personal) information underlying them. We examine them.

Ralph the spoiler

2004-02-23T07:34:00.000-05:00

I'm not expert in American politics, but a left-winger's good intentions to challenge the two-party duopoly by running in the presidential popularity contest can only hurt the more left of centre part of the duopoly. The part that the spoiler would sympathize with more. Ralph Nader obviously has no love for either party and couldn't personally care less which one of the two big parties wins the White House. That would imply a pervasive cynicism toward the system and its present inhabitants. From Ralph? More from the NYTimes here.

ZZZZZZ

2004-02-20T07:36:00.000-05:00

I like the first two items in this column. The first is, which is the headline (Blindly following can lead to a nasty fall) resonates but stops well short of the real observation: everything is contextual, etc., etc. [Read my forthcoming book ;-) ed.] The second, subtitled The Tired Company Syndrome, is interesting -- and, if you're paying attention, where the post title comes from -- although I think it's too easy to project into this one. Try it yourself.

Cool security

2004-02-19T08:08:00.000-05:00

This little gizmo is kinda cool for a personal security of digital data device. Not sure I'm a big fan of the USB flavour -- might be better as a java-based smart card (with or without proximity RF). Not sure USB is the best technical solution for broad-based deployment beyond personal computers. But then, I guess, it wouldn't have the flash storage capacity of this little guy. Anyway, read more about it in this Globetechnology item entitled, Sony Micro Vault with fingerprint scanner. [How . . . direct . . . ed.]

Pot . . . Kettle: black

2004-02-19T07:59:00.000-05:00

Let's see how dopey Belinda Stronach can sound a single news item:

“You can't run from your own track record,” the Conservative leadership candidate told The Canadian Press when asked about Mr. Martin's role in the sponsorship scandal rocking his Liberal government. Right. But, of course that would imply a track record to run from.
“Now, it's more a question of competence and leadership. And as the captain of a ship, you take responsibility for that ship.” Or, you can just be the blood relative of the boss and be emplaced to walk at the front of the parade being conducted by other capable people nominally reporting to you, but doing what the real boss wants (and they actually know.
“I am ready to be prime minister of Canada. I think in life it's important to know what you know and what you don't know and can you build a good team. I think I'm a very good team-builder.” No experience; no education: why not? Since we're being honest and self-aware: never finished any post-secondary education, haven't held a real job obtained on personal merit alone, married an executive with daddy's business, and haven't actually built (or rebuilt -- or effectively changed) anything while CEO on the basis of any inherent skills. The only visible team allegedly "built" was actually there beforehand. However, apparently excellent social fund-raising circuit skills and have held the gavel at executive meetings -- and after all, that's most of the job of prime minister, isn't it? Definitely ready.
Ms. Stronach, meanwhile, also took a swipe at Mr. Harper for saying the person with the best organization and the most money will prove victorious next month. “That, I disagree with. Our membership is smart, Canadians are smart. They will judge who has the character, who can unite this party, who has a track record and the integrity and most of all who has the ideas that at the end of the day will lead to a better quality of life for Canadians." Oh, where to start? It's either spin (created by somebody else) or naivity (likely hers); it's sure not realpolitik. Oh, and about the track record (none), integrity (unknown), and ideas (uninspired): PROVE IT.

Not sure if this whole thing is farce or tragedy.

Canada for business: 3rd world with reliable utilities

2004-02-19T07:42:00.000-05:00

This piece in the Globe and Mail (Canada No. 1 on least costly list makes me . . . well . . . uninspired. So Canada's low-cost among industrialized nations. Snip:

According to the report's details, salary and wage costs in Canada ranked second after Italy. Britain and France followed in third and fourth, respectively.

As well, Canada offered the lowest electricity costs among all countries. The costs for statutory holidays -- as a percentage of payroll -- was the lowest in Canada.

The 2004 study measured 27 costs -- including labour, taxes and utilities -- applied to business operations in 11 counties. The research included an analysis of those costs in 98 cities around the globe.

Don't let them go to that old saw: You get what you pay for.

Night tremors

2004-02-17T08:01:00.000-05:00

Cingular's people used the clock to snatch AT&T Wireless from the jaws of Vodafone as this article in today's NYTimes Cingular's $41 Billion Offer Wins Bidding for AT&T Wireless describes. They literally made a take-it-or-leave-it offer in the middle of the night in North America, while the Vodafone team slept in London. [Question: What kind of M&A team doing a $35B deal doesn't have feet on the ground? ed.] Well, whatever will be . . .

As almost everyone with a passing interest has been saying for a year or more, it was overdue. Consolidation was inevitable. Here's a snip from the NYTimes piece:

The sale to Cingular is the first sign of long promised consolidation in an industry that has suffered from overcrowding. While the deal will likely help the profitability of industry -- Cingular estimates the combination will save them as much as $15 billion -- it may mean higher prices for consumers in the long term and thousands of layoffs of overlapping positions at both AT&T Wireless and Cingular.

Still, the intensity of the ultra competitive landscape has been a mixed blessing for consumers. They have gotten lower prices and rich incentives for signing up with a wireless provider. But the effort by competitors to rapidly deploy their networks to fulfill the demand has often led to poor service quality and shoddy customer care.

Well, we'll see what happens. With two monsters (Verisign at 24% and Cingular -- with AT&T -- at 30% market share) and a bunch of also-rans (Sprint 10%; T-Mobile 9%; Nextel 8%), probably less price cutting and deal offering. But let's none of us hold our breath waiting for better customer care or service quality. And, large mergers/acquisitions have historically tended to dissipated value before they create any.

Still, it's a good thing for anyone supplying the industry or needing a coherent group for delivery of one's service to the end user. ;-)

Blurring distinctions

2004-02-12T10:04:00.000-05:00

I've been on a kick recently, as part of a self-determined strategy review, to convince my world that a fundamental change to the environment for post offices and others in the carriage trade, the telecomm. business, and so forth is that the distinctions between previously well-defined parts of the "value chain" are blurring beyond recognition. For instance, what is "delivery" in a world where digital and physical matter collide and overlap? Enough about that though. (It's tedious, but I'd be glad to pass on my thoughts to any who ask.)

Important -- and affirming -- to me, however, is that Intel is announcing a new, faster chip (prototype) today that has significant implications to the distinction between communications and computing. Here's a snip from the NYTimes article:

SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 11 -- Intel scientists will announce on Thursday that they have built a prototype of a silicon chip that can switch light on and off like electricity, blurring the line between computing and communications and bringing sweeping changes to the way digital information and entertainment are delivered.

For the first time, Intel researchers said, they have shown that ultra-high-speed fiber optic equipment can be produced at the equivalent of low-cost personal computer industry prices. Industry executives said the advance could lead to commercial products by the end of the decade.

As the costs of communicating in cyberspace falls, the researchers said, existing barriers to creating fundamentally new kinds of digital machines capable of far greater performance, and not limited by physical distance, should disappear.

To me the crucial word here -- a journalist's but still . . . -- is "blurring." The impact will be much wider than fibre optic equipment. It's going to further seriously affect communications, delivery, and the nature of the digital-physical relationship.

Trusted third party? Not government!??

2004-02-12T08:22:00.000-05:00

Here's an item from ComputerWorld that corroborates something this bit of the Web has been blathering about in various places such as heres: Get Ready for the U.S. National ID Card. The significant point is that while the world rails against a national ID card program, it has one in practically all effects except name. The driver's license is not meant to be a national or general ID; it is a license to drive a motor vehicle. HOWEVER, it is a culturally accepted standard of identification that, although not standardized across states and provinces nor granted national identity status, is going through an evolution to become just that.

I think it's a great idea, and that if the citizenry demands competing, alternative identity credentials as well, the "drivers' license national identity card" could be relatively innocuous re: privacy and civil rights. If it is standardized, as suggested in Cline's piece -- which points to an American Association of Motor Vehicles Administrators (AAMVA) initiative to create a framework for license standardization (in North America!) -- it will give a lie to the implicit assumption (sometimes made explicit depending on who's taking what position) that the public will never accept a government issuing a national digital identity. Counterpoint that with this post about Verisign issuing digital credentials despite being a representative of the equally unacceptable -- to consumers/citizens -- ommercial interest issuing general identity credentials.

That's the thing about so-called paradigm shifts: nothing holds for very long. Equilibrium is punctuated at best, and we just have to move along with the ground.

It's a long-term strategy -- D'uh!

2004-02-11T09:15:00.000-05:00

Hate Verisign! Like the evil empire (no, not Microsoft), they control the Internet and do bad things for their own welfare. [Shock! Horror! Indignation!! ed.] Sitefinder, the controversial search service, is an example of Verisign using its privileged position in a way that competitors and many other freedom fighters find offensive. I'm still unsure what I think. Now, there's more news in the digital ID space from Verisign in this CNET item: VeriSign works to ID kid surfers

In short, Verisign and a partner (i-Safe) are going to issue ID tokens to school kids to keep them safe as they surf the Internet: no charge to the school or the kid. Business model (read: way to make money) will probably involve the vendors and advertisers that want to access that market paying a fee so the tokens will permit the kids to access their wares or somesuch. Whatever. That's the small end of the stick.

More significant is that "leettle girls [and boys] get beegehr heveryday." In other words, it's a long-term strategy of conditioning the kids so that they're used to the idea and 5 - 10 years from now use a digital ID as a matter of course rather than resisting for privacy or other concerns; of using this market as the bait to bring online merchants and advertisers (with the money) to play and pay for the game; of using the kids' safety as a showcase for the parents (who really have the economic power and are the market the vendors really want) to buy into the consumer-based digital ID program for themselves; of . . . And, Verisign is willing to invest big money (maybe -- we don't know who's all investing) to make it all happen with limited reward potential in the immediate future.

Let's recall that Verisign has had as little luck with its consumer PKI programs (certificates) as anyone else; that they probably see the enormous commercial potential and value in being the consumer identity provider in a networked world that will run on identity within 5 - 10 years; that they can do it. Hat off to them.

If their foray is successful, and there's no way of telling that for at least a few years, they will put the lie to the belief that there are trusted parties (say post offices, governments, etc.) that can do this and others (e.g., Verisign) that can't. What's next: Microsoft Passport redux?

It's all magic

2004-02-11T08:01:00.000-05:00

Here's a little piece that's everywhere about another Microsoft op-sys security vulnerability that requires immediate attention. Frankly it's to be expected, and makes me think about cars -- at a theoretical level. Like this:

There was a time when I was young that a car: internal combustion engine and other assorted mechanical parts, was a relatively simple proposition. True, there were many parts, but each one was merely a part of the overall machine. It worked mechanically and so a mechanic or any other testosterone-filled teenager with Camero-lust could figure out how to pull the whole thing apart and put it back together -- fixed or otherwise. You could drop a bowling ball into the engine compartment of a GTO and it would hit pavement unimpeded. Today, the engine area (now smaller) is crammed full of bits and pieces, sensors and onboard computer equipment, with only a limited portion of those many, many integral parts operating mechanically. It is, in short, impossible for anybody but a trained technician to understandable and tinker in this system.

"WTF does this have to do with Microsoft?" you ask. Well . . . nothing. But, nobody understands their operating system either. Only those relatively few geeks techies that code and do other assorted software-y stuff. Upshot: we really don't know what's what, or why's why. We have to rely on these magi to keep us safe and working properly: just like we have to take our $40,000 sedan to an automotive shop -- often the dealer -- rather than pissing with it in the backyard (were one so inclined).

And that, my friend, is magic. Just like the Mayan high priests or the clerics of early and middle Christianity. Nobody can escape it. The whole thing is a complex, self-organizing and continually-mutating, adaptive system that everybody has to ride in. Be flexible.

Fatty, fatty, two by four . . .

2004-02-11T07:48:00.000-05:00

In my case it's vanity that finally got me to lose weight. And, although still a little displeased with my shape, concerned about what my Polar heart monitor tells me when I run, and ranking as modestly "overweight" on the BMI, I'm relatively pleased to be fitter. Others apparently need more or alternate incentive, so the medical industry is coming to our rescue as pointed out in this Globe and Mail item (Fat is the new tobacco: Heart and Stroke Foundation) and another from the London Telegraph (Doctors warn of obesity time bomb). Having all but won the war on smoking, we turn our attention to another not exactly-burning platform. [Anyone who doesn't believe that smoking and obesity are connected at least a little bit ought to go to Paris where they're born with a chimney and a croissant changes their body weight until metabolized. ed.]

This is good. Good for society; good for Dr. Phil, for the Duchess of York, for Slimfast, for Atkins, for all kinds of exercise equipment flacks . . .

But, I say while we've got the problem, we should use it to do good. "Hey," you say, "do you think there could be a symbiotic socio-economic activity that might alleviate the obesity problem and do some economic good?" Well I'm glad you asked. As it it turns out, I took a run at this a few years ago [man it's hard being that far in front of the curve all the time . . . ed.] in a little piece I wrote. Here's a snip:

We’re too fat because we overeat and under-exercise. It could be different were there more incentive to change. But while the primary motivators are appeals to individual health consciousness and vanity there will never be enough incentive for most people to lose weight. Part of the problem is that those most able to influence society support obesity. Change that and you can change the Canadian fitness level. Enter Robert Milton.

Milton assured us he would fix Air Canada in just 180 days. Since he isn’t providing much value to anyone these days—not his investors, customers, employees, or the country at large—maybe he could save Canada from the blubber bomb. Maybe even in 180 days.

It’s a simple plan. The thrust is to change the incentive structure for fitness, placing it on the shoulders of Corporate Canada, using Air Canada as the lever to a greater good.

Air travel is the most effective way to travel distances. It is also most heavily trafficked by business travelers, making corporate travel budgets a substantial portion of the cost of doing business. So organizations have been working hard to reign in this expense. Now imagine the possibilities, were the cost to fly based on weight—like other cargo.

This and more available on one of my content pages.

Now that's synergy!

Those crazy kids

2004-02-10T07:49:00.000-05:00

Let's hope that there aren't a lot of pictures taken of the (genuine) demands for change and action by the university students in this piece, entitled, Universities heed the call for genderless washrooms. A snip:

There are washrooms for men and washrooms for women. And, coming soon to a university campus near you will be washrooms for those who don't limit themselves to either category.

I'm all for youthful expression and challenge of the status quo: hell, I'm for middle-age expression and challenge of the status quo. But, either we're in for a very significant redistribution of gender dynamics in the coming decade or there are going to be a fair number of 30-somethings wishing they'd experimented differently during university.

I knew it!!!!

2004-02-09T08:02:00.000-05:00

The Dante's Inferno Test has banished me to the Second Level of Hell!
Here is how Imatched up against all the levels:

Level	Score
Purgatory (Repenting Believers)	Very Low
Level 1 - Limbo (Virtuous Non-Believers)	Low
Level 2 (Lustful)	Very High
Level 3 (Gluttonous)	High
Level 4 (Prodigal and Avaricious)	Low
Level 5 (Wrathful and Gloomy)	High
Level 6 - The City of Dis (Heretics)	Moderate
Level 7 (Violent)	Moderate
Level 8- the Malebolge (Fraudulent, Malicious, Panderers)	Very High
Level 9 - Cocytus (Treacherous)	Low

Take the Dante's Inferno Test for yourself. See where you end up. Be honest now! ;-0

UPDATE: Microsoft's Bill is not in the mail

2004-02-09T07:50:00.000-05:00

As noted a few days ago, Bill Gates gets things moving. His comments while at the World Economic Forum, in Davos, about quelling spam by a "postage" system that creates economic friction got the media in a flurry for sure. First, we heard about the rising tide. Then, as this piece in the Globe and Mail's technology section illustrates, the tide went out.

The well-justified, standard counter-responses have been trotted out: (1) It's all about Microsoft wanting to make more money [D'oh! No kidding . . . uh, and? . . . ed.]; (2) It's too hard to implement [Where there's a Will . . . there's money. And where there's money, there's always a way. ed. -- again]; (3) Spammers typically are "invisible," so how would you bill them? [They gotta get online somehow -- and get their money through the responses that do come in, sometime. See response to (2), above. ed. -- still going on]

Likely best interpretation: Bill was testing the "business" water. Microsoft (as others) is working out the technology. Based on the responses as presented in the Globe's item, the business solution is neither ready for prime time nor is the environment ready for the solution. So, one could expect the whole thing to go back below surface for a while again . . . waiting . . .

What HBR doesn't know it's missing . . .

2004-02-06T13:22:00.000-05:00

So, I think just under two months is a respectable amount of time to wait before conceding that a response is not forthcoming. I sent an article proposal to HBR in mid-December in the form and with the content they said they required. Obviously, either the value of (a) the idea is not in keeping with their storied (vaulted?) position as guardians of business "intelligence," or (b) I'm not.

So, although I'm not sure when I'll get to writing the actual piece, now for my own edification alone apparenlty, I've chosen to put the proposal out here for review. Download it; read it; review it; comment on it; tell me how obvious it is that it's not right . . . Whatever.

Knock yourself out.

What the hell's wrong with these people?

2004-02-06T08:16:00.000-05:00

A little piece in the Globe and Mail says that fewer than a quarter of 1,500 people surveyed in Britain would quit work if they knew they only had 13 days to live. Although . . . twice as many said they'd stop worring about work. WTF?

A snip from the 3-grafer:

More than three quarters of British employees would rather go to work than take a dream holiday if they had only 13 days to live, according to a survey by two U.K. charities, TimeBank and Help the Hospices.

Racin' for ricin

2004-02-05T07:47:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I was on the Capitol ricin scare in DC. Today there's more in the NYTimes in this article: Ricin Poses Postal Risk, but Different From Germs

The thrust of the message is that, yes, the postal system has to cope with these things but poison (ricin) is considerably less troublesome than a biological/virus (anthrax), and screening systems are being upgraded. Besides, as a terror activity it's not that effective.

True enough, potentially knocking off a senator or congressman might actually be considered a heroic measure by some parts of the American population. And, poison in the mail is not as big as planes meeting buildings. But, if these anthrax or poison laced envelopes were being distributed randomly to people often in the news (hollywood stars, music stars, athletes [notice an alarming trend toward entertainment being "important" in this list? ed.], corporate executives, state and municipal politicians, and so forth), and you would have yourself an enormously effective terrorist activity. Remember, the impact of the terrorist action is not to kill or harm a specific target for its intrinsic value, but to cause destabilization of social systems. Making the US mail a cause for life-and-death caution in general would do that. Remember what happened to air travel -- and travel in general a couple years ago. There was and would be a significant economic impact, if not a restructuring of social systems.

Just a thought.

It's the little things that count

2004-02-05T07:22:00.000-05:00

Here's a story about a little technology that has big potential: E-Mailing a Cellphone by the Numbers. Teleflip provides a service for people sending email to a mobile phone that eliminates the requirement for the domain name. In other words, rather than sending an email to my phone by dialing 6137979793@rogers.pcs.com (I think) you would only have to send to the 10-digits @teleflip.com. Their proprietary algorithms match the phone number to the correct domain and complete the delivery.

Now, it's not exactly rocket science as best as I can figure out: take the number, use the first three digits to locate the geographic area where the phone is tied, the second three digits to determine which carrier the phone belongs to, append the carrier's domain, and forward the message. There are problems too. First, number portability will make my little approach more difficult, so maybe there's more to their algorithm than all that. Second, some people might be off-put by sending their private email to a third party (although I think that's mostly a red herring).

The capability is kind of cool and relatively simple. So, were your ISP to license the capability, it's not entirely impossible that it could catch on. Me, I'm less thrilled about scrolling email on my phone, but there are others . . . It could also, if successful, fallow the ground for Neustar's eNUM project.

Sure, but would it remember to forget?

2004-02-04T12:53:00.000-05:00

I guess it's good that the Darpa Lifelog project was quietly cancelled as this Wired News article, Wired News: Pentagon Kills LifeLog Project notes.

Lifelog's intent was to gather everything a person says (emails, phone calls, etc.) and does (air tickets purchased, television watched, movies seen, meetings taken, etc.) into a single data directory. The rationale is that:

the all-encompassing diary could have turned into a near-perfect digital memory, giving its users computerized assistants with an almost flawless recall of what they had done in the past.

Can you say "Big Brother's watching"?

If this doesn't drop the per unit cost . . .

2004-02-04T07:40:00.000-05:00

High-end smart cards with all the bells and whistles, like a RF proximity loop, suitably large chips, etc., etc. are a little bit expensive for the average profit-based entity to undertake. If ONLY there were enough volume being produced to reduce the per unit cost . . . The several million-large CAC (common access card) deployment in the US military over the past several years is still pretty puny.

Well hang on there sparky because it seems that China's about to pump up the volume as this story from cardtechnology.com points out.

Because it's small, here's the item:

02/03/04 The world's largest smart card rollout is set to begin: starting in March, all Chinese over the age of 16 will be issued a smart card as ID document. The rollout of chip cards to 1.3 billion citizens is expected to be completed by the year 2008, according to the official news agency Xinhua. Officials of the Ministry of Public Security expect the new ID card to be a way of preventing the rampant forgery of old ID cards. The new card will be put into use in the cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Changsha.

The ID cards will be the size of standard bank card and use contactless smart card chips. Further, they will carry only the identification application and be fixed memory cards with 4 kilobytes of memory. Only Chinese vendors supply the chips and the modules that encase them. According to Chinese officials, the technology must be supplied domestically "for security reasons".

China started to issue ID cards in 1984 in light of a fledgling market-oriented economy that required more traveling. Traveling had previously been restricted by the household registration system set up in 1958. This system specified where each Chinese should live, which normally was where they were born. If they moved, they lost rights to cheaper education and missed out on job opportunities. China now considers the 1958 system to be outdated. In the past two decades of economic reforms millions of Chinese have left their homes to find work.

Expect some outsourcing to China.

More things telephone operators don't have to worry about

2004-02-03T12:33:00.000-05:00

First anthrax, now ricin; like there aren't enough things for mail sorters and carriers to worry about. This story in the NYTimes, Powder Found in Senate Leader's Office Confirmed as Poison, describes the latest poison-mail incident on the US Capitol.

It's only a matter of time before this extensively open system (which, I found out last time I was at Dulles, has been closed modestly: there are no blue mail boxes, not sure whether it's because of bombs or poison -- probably bombs) is closed down for public safety reasons. Of course, there is a digital identity application here in the form of a need to slip a credential card into a mail receptical before putting the mail/parcel in. The machine would then record the depositor's identity for future tracing requirements. How the civil right to private and unimpinged communication would be addressed is another matter.

Interesting to note that, at least to my untrained, anecdotal view, the story of poisoned mail on the Capitol is receiving less media time this go round.

It's a DRIVER'S licence, not a general ID!!

2004-02-02T08:54:00.000-05:00

Some of us who pay attention to these things understand that digital identity is (a) important, (b) inevitable, (c) complex, (d) is an execution problem, and (e) very likely to evolve out of driver's licensing (at least in North America). Let's look at the last item, if only because there's a relevant new item today in the NYTimes. The article, Report Focuses on False ID?s Made at Motor Vehicle Offices, starts pointing out that the driver's license is not meant to be an all-around identity credential. And, using it this way has its problems inasmuch as, there are systemic design problems in how license registries issue and control the credential.

The industry group representing driver's license issuers takes a position that this blog has made clear here and in other writings (at the Website): many different special credentials are needed to make the credential and information itself less valuable to identity theives and fraud artists. Quoting the article:

Most of all, it [American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators] recommends that agencies issue different ID's for different uses, thus making the driver's license less of a prize. 'Strengthening the standards only helps us to a certain extent,' Mr. Schwartz said. 'The real answer is to stop relying so heavily on this form of ID.'

How novel ;-)

Where's the Post Office in all this?

2004-02-02T08:49:00.000-05:00

Second time in the same number of weeks, major media has taken note of the idea of postage on email. [Bill Gates, like a head of state, is a human starting gun! ed.] In today's NYTimes is a story entitled,
Speech by Gates Lends Visibility to E-Mail Stamp in War on Spam. In the article is a modest look at what Microsoft and Yahoo! are doing to create friction in the email system to prevent spam. Several tech companies developing systems that levy "postage" fees on email are highlighted as well. A quotation:

Now, though, the idea of e-mail postage is getting a second look from the owners of the two largest e-mail systems in the world, Microsoft and Yahoo.
Ten days ago, Bill Gates, Microsoft's chairman, told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that spam would not be a problem in two years, in part because of systems that would require people to pay money to send e-mail. Yahoo, meanwhile, is quietly evaluating an e-mail postage plan being developed by Goodmail, a Silicon Valley start-up company.

The article is worth reading, but it begs the obvious questions:

1. Why isn't the original and valid "postage" administrator noted in the article?

2. Why isn't that "natural party" finding a voice now in this nascent discussion before it's too late?

360-degrees of mediocrity

2004-01-30T07:52:00.000-05:00

Found this piece, entitled, Playing to our strengths in this morning's Globe and Mail. The author is an executive coach -- not the high-priced kind that calls some of the money shots from an expensive box overlooking the game, but the wayward "orgy-b" type trying to convince organizations and their employees that they can be all they can be, but I digress -- who has prepared a little item that probably hits home for ~~a few of~~ my loyal readers. Here's an example from the text

If you managed a hockey team, would you put the goalie on left wing? Would you ask Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong to go back from the front to fetch water for his cycling team? Would you fix Tiger Woods' swing because it's not what other golfers have used?

Of course not. You're going to put your best team members in the place where you can use their particular skills and let each apply their style and strengths to your advantage.

But if it's so darn obvious, why try to force employees into positions they can't play or change their style to conform with what you've always used? Why look at what's wrong with them instead of what's right with them?

It's managing for mediocrity and the results speak for themselves: stress and burnout, boring and bland corporate people who look over their shoulders as they speak.

The article's a nice little warm pick-me-up for those of you churning your way through and fretting about the annual review process.

"Bosses prefer satisfaction to money or power "-- really . . .

2004-01-28T08:09:00.000-05:00

This, from The Globe and Mail, is worth a thought for a few minutes on at least three levels. Here's one quotation from the very short item:

Three-fourths (76 per cent) of global executives would prefer more satisfaction from their job over money (18 per cent) or power (6 per cent), according to research today by executive recruitment firm, Korn/Ferry International.

Are we asking people with more than "satisfactory levels of money and power" whether they want "money and power" or "satisfaction." Maslow had a theory about this. Duh!

In the second bit of statistics it notes that 34% of those polled found their senior management "competent" and a further found them "fairly competent." Now, I'm no statistician, but this says to me that one in three CEOs thinks his/her senior management are sub-par, and fully two-thirds are admitting that they think their people are MEDIOCRE. [That's gotta hurt! ed.] So, only 1 in 3 senior managers is better than "competent." At least it's not the Lake Wobegon Corporation where "90% of the people are above average."

Finally, only(!) 48% of these CEOs believe advancement at their company is fair and based on merit. [At least they're not hypocrites -- when they're anonymous. ed.] Even better: 41% "still believe it is based on favouritism and posturing."

I'm sure if you give it a minute or two, you can come up with even more questions or observations.

What exactly is the point of the MBA HR courses (and the resultant corporate people)?

Microsoft: the 21st-century post office?

2004-01-27T08:13:00.000-05:00

In a post yesterday, I noted that Bill G had made a statement in Davos to the effect that spam would be eradicated by a post-office like mechanism. Naturally, I thought the world's most forward-looking rich guy was thinking of the actual post offices as the mechanism for doing so.

Maybe he was. However, with a tip from Dean, I found out that Microsoft has been working on solving this issue for some time in a project called Penny Black. In short, Penny Black (name taken from the first British postal stamp) is research into how to make spam infeasible through mostly technological means that include an economic cost to the issuer rather than on the recipient of the emailings. Good idea. It is, however, quite possible based on what they're doing that MS thinks it can be the post office of the 21st (electronic)-century.

Of course there's that whole independent, disinterested, regulated, socially-benefitting aspect of the post office in the communications paradigm that Microsoft doesn't actually fit . . . Keep at it Bill

E-Commerce Report: Fewer Online Shoppers in Canada

2004-01-26T08:33:00.000-05:00

Oops. For those of us "in the business," this may come as something of a shock -- especially if we're using the 10:1 rule with US data aas our guidepost. Of course, the article (and maybe even the Ipsos-Reid study that spawned it) doesn't make as plain the following information and questions:

Spending was down by $18-million on $990-million year over year (which was already ($110-million down from 2001). Question: what about overall spending during the seasonal period: up or down? (i.e., does the online buying reduction reflect or contract the overall economy?

Users who have bought online was way up from previous years, but during the holidays only about half of those who had EVER bought online did so. Question: So what? Just because I've bought online once, I'm expected to do it all the time? The biggest electronic purchase this year for the holidays was digital cameras. For my several hundred bucks, I'm going to go touch and feel it (and probably buy it -- so I'm sure it'll be there Christmas/ Hannukah/ Eid morning).

Some things just aren't really suitable for purchase online -- for others, to boot -- such as things that cost way too much to ship, things that require fitting (and therefore going back to the STORE!), etc. Did the study find out what was purchased during the holiday season to check for correlation?

Whatever.

Another "Privacy" Red Herring

2004-01-26T08:28:00.000-05:00

Lot's of "privacy stuff" today. [Duh! It's Monday . . . slow business news day, remember? ed.] This item in the NYTimes, entitled, Plans for Wireless Directory Raise Concerns About Privacy is interesting. Background: telecomm carriers considering publishing of a white pages for cellular phones; law put before both the House and the Senate (US) to require user "opt-in" to protect privacy; privacy advocacy groups insisting that it is a privacy imposition and should not be done.

What nonsense! What a red herring! What . . . [insert something else displaying proper level of indignance here]!

First, the telcos need to publish a wireless directory to re-generate revenues that have been lost to the waning land-line publishing operation. So, they want to make money off the listing as they've done FOREVER.

Second, those opposed to it are less concerned about privacy in the "you shouldn't know that about me" variety than about privacy in the "do not disturb me" variation. [Sadly there doesn't appear to be a set of different words for these two meanings -- at least not in English. Maybe, given the debate that is developing, there should be. But, I digress. ed.] Regardless, neither is or has been a RIGHT of holders of a telecommunications address, EVER. Nor, probably, should it be. So, despite the fact that I completely agree with this side's desires -- who wants telemarketers to have the cell phone number too? -- the argument and action is cloudy nonsense.

Third, who's heard of the philosophical paradox of the immovable object and the irresistible force? That's what we have here: social desire facing off against the profit motive. Hoo-wah!

Finally, if/when the wireless connection becomes more pervasive than the land line connection, what happens? What's the logic behind it.

It's not exactly bread and circuses, but it does keep one amuse while the City burns.

Our global Gate-ed community

2004-01-26T08:19:00.000-05:00

A couple tenuously related Bill Gates news items today that hit close to home.

First, Bill is in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum [What, again my invite was lost? That's nine years running!! ed.] and is, naturally, on the podium at least once. This year he's promising the elimination of spam (email not the fake meat kind, although both are interesting propositions). OK, whatever. Another plug for some Microsoft upgrade or another. Yes, but no. Soothsaying Bill points to . . . the post office for the solution. Well, not exactly, but close enough. Here's a couple grafs from the NYTimes:

The third way [spam will be elminated], which Mr. Gates said was likely to arrive later but be the long-term solution, would require that e-mail messages sent by strangers come with postage attached, the equivalent of a postage stamp.
"If the sender is your long-lost brother," he said, the payment can be declined, costing the sender nothing.
But recipients who want to fight spam would always accept the payment if the incoming mail appeared to be spam, making the sending of such messages uneconomic.

Given my employ: You Rock Bill!.

Second, the British Foreign office ["Whitehall says . . ."] announced that:

Britain will give an honorary knighthood to Microsoft Corp. chairman Bill Gates in recognition of his contribution to enterprise in Britain, the government said Monday.

Now, he can't be called "Sir Bill," because he's not British -- or a citizen of the Commonwealth -- but he'll officially be aristocracy of a sort.

So, let's be historically clear: the French Empire, the British Empire, the American (we're not an. . .) Empire, and the Microsoft Empire. Yup.

Lawyers stumped by privacy act

2004-01-26T07:46:00.000-05:00

The murky depths of the privacy issue (or non-issue, depending on how you view it) created by the effect of the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act (PIPEDA) seems pretty opaque right now. But, as this item in The Globe and Mail shows with regard to the law's impact on law firms, "you ain't seen nothing yet."

The law has wrinkles that need to be worked out which probably nobody foresaw in the good intent of four years ago. One of two things is going to happen: (a) we're going to have a significant shift in information transmission and holding -- short term very likely; or (b) the Court will start changing the law through a number of challenges, and the whole world of privacy and information, etc. is going to be (d)evolving for the next decade.

Should create "privacy" job opportunities though . . . for those who care and get on board early.

Self-organization and complexity papers

2004-01-22T13:46:00.000-05:00

If you are taking the time to peruse this blog I'll assume you have others on an "A" list that you read. So, logically, you read. If you're here, it's for one of three reasons: 1. I've conned you into it because you're family or friend. 2. You found your way here by recommendation one day and liked something, and are patiently waiting for something witty/relevent/interesting to happen again. 3. You found your way here because I state an interest in complexity, emergence, self-organization, etc., etc. This post is about the last one.

Credit Suisse First Boston, notable Wall Streeters, have been holding an event called the Thought Leader Forum on what would seem to be an annual basis. David Weinberg pointed the way to the 2003 Thought Leader Forum page. Last year's forum was specifically centred on the concepts of self-organization and the speakers were (as usual, it seems) VERY high calibre. The previous forums appear to have been geared toward subsets of this fascinating (to me anyway) subject. Anyway, if this emerging science interests you in general of for your day job, there are a number of papers and concept cards there that are well-worth reading.

Does anybody know how to get invited to this thing?

Itching . . .

2004-01-22T10:52:00.000-05:00

Home from work today -- "sick." Feels wrong not to be working, and, in fact, have my laptop open doing some strategy writing anyway -- over the Mrs.'s protestations. Problem is that I'm not sick in the "got pneumonia" sense -- been there done that -- but in the "I've got a very peculiar migraine" way.

For those who care to be Cliff Clavenesque at their next dinner party or around the water cooler should the subject come up, here's a little tidbit about migraines. They are not always the "my head is exploding" variety of super-headache that most people equate with the word. Sometimes there isn't even a headache at all -- at least initially -- just a load of unseemly and sometimes debilitating symptoms. I found this out a few years ago because I would periodically either (a) lose part of my vision in the central focal area, so that when I was looking at someone's face for instance, I would be mentally filling in the bottom-left quarter because in actuality I wasn't seeing it, or (b) my field of vision was full of starbursts, or (c) my peripheral vision would suddenly be quite milky. Long story short, went to a neurologist and found out these were migraines: peculiar because there was no headache.

Well, I've come a long way. Now, apparently, these initial symptoms are leading indicators only. What follows is a massive headache, dizziness, light sensitivity, periodic loss of equilibrium and nausea, randomly interspersed [sp?] with boughts of general well-being of the "I'm feeling OK, what am I doing here," variety. So, here I am. It sucks.

I must be sick because this very post contradicts my opening position for the blog: that it wouldn't become some moronic slice-of-my-life diary. I'll try to do better. Maybe as soon as today . . . maybe.

Consolidation: AT&T Wireless Up for Sale

2004-01-21T07:27:00.000-05:00

What the hell do I know about wireless industry -- in the USA? Probabaly a lot less than analysts and people who make a living there. But, for an out-of-industry foreigner, I think I do OK. More than that, I know people who know. And, they told me this kind of consolidation in the US wireless industry was coming SOON. It seems that having so many incoherent and non-standardized (i.e., their registries, etc., let alone their choice of platform) organizations doesn't work so well for customers. Besides, if the companies themselves didn't do it, consumers would -- now that the stickiness of keeping a cool phone number doesn't matter.

Cingular gets AT&T? Verizon soon to step up to the buffet? What's on the table: BellSouth? Nextel?

Making kids grow up fast

2004-01-20T12:57:00.000-05:00

I watch digital identity for fun (not profit, at least by trend) and take notice of interesting news. Here's an interesting item from two perspectives.

First, technology gets taken up and used in ways that may not be especially obvious to those who introduce them. I think its satisfactorily true that innovations are shaped by the people upon whom they are foisted: "you think we want this, but we'll use it like this for that." As the Globe and Mail article linked below shows, public schools are using security passes as a means to both protect property and children. Frankly, given the relative ease that perverts and other malcontents have in abducting children from around schoolyards, I applaud the initiative.

Second, you can count on somebody taking issue with anything that veers from the status quo. An excerpt from the story, entitled Schools resorting to ID cards after thefts:

"But civil libertarians say that forcing students to wear identification in school and even having video cameras watch them will make teenagers feel like criminals.
'We believe that schools are academies and places of learning, and with the recent trends of invading students' privacy . . ., the academy is starting to look more like a reformatory,' said Kirk Tousaw of the B.C. Civil Liberties Association."

I have to work in a building that requires a security badge -- as do most of the people I know. When I go through an airport, I practically have to keep my ID visible (and it's only a matter of time before . . .). Although I may feel like a prisoner in my cube, I'm not. So, boys and girls, OR BUSYBODIES SPEAKING ON THEIR BEHALF, welcome to the new millennium.

Hubris finally got him

2004-01-18T20:06:00.000-05:00

". . . I come to bury Caesar not to praise him . . ." I'm late to the schadenfreude party called for the late great Conrad Black, but he's still a hero of a sort. Sadly though, pride -- as usual -- came before a fall. [What the hell is the matter with people -- don't they eventually see this coming, especially the smart and really well-read ones like Black? Ed.] I don't think it was his business dealings and skill -- or lack thereof -- that took Connie down, it was the hubris that overtook him. He was, after all, Peter Newman's "Establishment Man" in his thirties. How could he not be infallible? Well, as usual, when you stop looking, you'll find it (I think that's Taoist.)

Oh well. Such is life. The friends, the dough, the salary, the assets, the business that is his identity . . . Next gone will be the houses or the wife: I'm betting on the wife (high end real estate is a hard to unload right now apparently).

More silly stuff

2004-01-18T19:56:00.000-05:00

I got a heart rate ~~monitor~~ governor for Christmas and have been paying attention to heart rate matters fastidiously. My friends are working on my behalf too. Like my friend Warren, who noticed an interesting heart-rate inconsistency in the Sharper catalogue. In the picture below, taken from the Sharper catalog, check out the highlighted items.

Wow! Get off the ephedrine, lady!!

Wow, is it COLD!!

2004-01-15T18:45:00.000-05:00

I'm from the centre of Canada where the temperature is known to drop to very low places on the thermometer and not come back up until somebody says, "Everyone ready to go to Cancun?" So you'd think that I'd be as used to the cold as a Yeti. Not so. It's been particularly cold, lately -- even for me. I thought it was just me getting old and soft. But no.

It seems it's been really cold lately. Even The Weather Network has had to make changes to its reporting. Plus temperatures just look better! [Note the scale: absolute zero Kelvin is -236 degree centigrade, I think. ed.]

My friend Sanjay, from Chicago, who is an engineer and knows these things, recommends pulling the electrical cabling out of the house because at these temperatures they just become super-conductors. Well, gonna hafta rely on fire, I guess.

Winter reader drive

2004-01-15T07:55:00.000-05:00

For all of you reading today (Jan 15), I've decided that today will be our 24-hour "no light special" readership drive. To anybody referring a reader and can prove that said reader makes recursive Progress his/her primary news/ opinion/ humour/ commentary/ irritation/ schadenfreude Web resource, I will guarantee the availability of hydro-electric power at your home after the weekend.

C'mon people. Lets make the server hurt. Only 15-1/2 hours left.

Rumors about online advertisings death . . .

2004-01-15T07:24:00.000-05:00

As an article in today's New York Times points out, online ad spending -- at least at Yahoo! [yeah, I know they don't use it much anymore, but I like the slammer!] -- went up.

"Yahoo, the big Internet portal, said its revenue from online advertising, its largest business line, was $1.2 billion in 2003, up 84 percent. That exceeded the expected ad sales for America Online, which has led online advertising since the dawn of the commercial Internet. This year, AOL's ad revenue is expected to be about $775 million, down 41 percent, said Jordan Rohan, of Schwab Soundview Capital Markets."

So, was it a zero-sum shift? Maybe. Apparently Yahoo! actually raised CPM and got a demand expansion of unprovable size. Much of its increased volume came from the consolidated earnings of online advertising sales operation, Overture Services, which it bought in October.

Still, they're predicting growth through 2004. Let's go with that and see if this is part of the major shift expected by traditional media. Now if only there was a way to relatively simply make traditional broadcast more interactive and valuable . . . hmmmm . . .

Not enough real lawyerin' work -- part II

2004-01-14T22:09:00.000-05:00

A (the?) loyal Wild Rose country reader forwarded an image of an email making the rounds in Calgary. It's apparently the early salvo from Mr. Kraik, Esq., precursor to the law suit reported last month.

My first reaction was, "Wow, what pompous windbag!" I read it to my wife, and she cut me down a notch with: "Sounds like you might sound if it were your daughter." Obviously, I winced because she softened it a little bit by adding, "He sure is full of himself though." So, I read it again and have decided that, yes, I probably would defend my daughter equally vigorously in a similar circumstance.

But counselor Kraik is doing neither himself nor his son any favours by deluding himself with a fantastical notion of his child's purity and perfection. More than that, what kind of example is he setting by blaming somebody else for each problem and shouldering no responsibility? I wouldn't want to meet young Alexander when he becomes a teenager who has come to believe in his entitlement.

Forget Microsoft . . . get worried about Verisign

2004-01-13T08:13:00.000-05:00

As though it weren't bad enough that Verisign controls Internet root DNS, now, as this article in the Washington Post (VeriSign to Manage Tags for Consumer Items) presents, they have now been selected to administer the directory for the forthcoming commercial RFID network. This network will likely become the replacement for bar-codes (AND SO MUCH MORE . . . as Phil Ronco might say).

Can you spell: "T-O-O M-U-C-H I-N-F-R-M-A-T-I-O-N I-N O-N-E P-L-A-C-E"